Increased violence will probably follow the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani. Iran will retaliate, probably through regional proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis. If Trump escalates in response, things could get very bad, so I hope a new shiny object distracts him.
Either way, the only winners here are defense contractors and oil extractors. Russia is a big oil producer, and the Moscow stock exchange hit an all-time high on the news of the assassination.
This is a moment when the differences between Democratic and Republican foreign policy are clear. Obama had the opportunity to assassinate Soleimani several times, but didn't do it. For one thing, Iran would quickly replace Soleimani. The replacement might not be as skilled, but Iran would be more angry at America, and retaliation would be the first order of business.
For another thing, Obama wanted Iranian leaders to agree to a nuclear nonproliferation deal, and killing their colleagues with missiles would complicate negotiations. After taking over from Bush, who branded Iran part of the "Axis of Evil", Obama repaired relations and got his deal. International inspectors verified that Iran was abiding by its commitments, and enriching uranium only at the level required for a peaceful program.
Then Trump came. He withdrew from the Iran deal and reimposed sanctions. With the deal dead, Iran has grown its enriched uranium stockpile beyond what was allowed. And now Trump has committed an assassination.
Iran is full of cool young people who don't want to live in a theocracy. I hope that someday they'll get their wish, and Iran will be a liberal democracy in a big international alliance with the US. (I hope we'll be a liberal democracy then too.) But what we've become and what we've done makes that happy future less likely than it used to be.
Either way, the only winners here are defense contractors and oil extractors. Russia is a big oil producer, and the Moscow stock exchange hit an all-time high on the news of the assassination.
This is a moment when the differences between Democratic and Republican foreign policy are clear. Obama had the opportunity to assassinate Soleimani several times, but didn't do it. For one thing, Iran would quickly replace Soleimani. The replacement might not be as skilled, but Iran would be more angry at America, and retaliation would be the first order of business.
For another thing, Obama wanted Iranian leaders to agree to a nuclear nonproliferation deal, and killing their colleagues with missiles would complicate negotiations. After taking over from Bush, who branded Iran part of the "Axis of Evil", Obama repaired relations and got his deal. International inspectors verified that Iran was abiding by its commitments, and enriching uranium only at the level required for a peaceful program.
Then Trump came. He withdrew from the Iran deal and reimposed sanctions. With the deal dead, Iran has grown its enriched uranium stockpile beyond what was allowed. And now Trump has committed an assassination.
Iran is full of cool young people who don't want to live in a theocracy. I hope that someday they'll get their wish, and Iran will be a liberal democracy in a big international alliance with the US. (I hope we'll be a liberal democracy then too.) But what we've become and what we've done makes that happy future less likely than it used to be.
