16 years ago, eventual Democratic primary winner John Kerry was at 6% nationally, behind four other candidates. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt led him in Iowa. They attacked each other for the next month, letting Kerry and Edwards emerge. I see this data (Nov-Dec 2003 from Pew) as a caution against making too much of small differences in current primary polls.This year it's been hard for anyone to take a lasting lead, partly because other candidates attack the leaders to prevent a runaway victory. We might see a minor candidate rise or a major candidate fall, but otherwise I expect things to remain basically stable until Iowa. Then there's a wild media frenzy with losers dropping out and their support rushing to winners.
