Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Promising polls of the protests and the President

Americans think the protesters were fully or partially justified in burning the police station by a 54-38 margin. More say 'partially', but this level of support for arson against police property is striking. And by a 78-18 margin, they think the protesters' anger is fully or partially justified. Here a resounding majority say 'fully'.

Meanwhile, Trump's disapproval rating has climbed to 54%, which is a bad number even for him. People don't like it when he goes white supremacist -- his worst number was above 57% around the Charlottesville protests. Biden has a lead outside the margin of error in every poll I've seen, and the high outliers put it in double digits.

There's still a long time to go until November, and this year has taught us that earthshaking events can be plentiful. But presently, election polls are looking the way you want them to look.

Data in the image is from Monmouth, a pollster ranked A+ by Nate Silver's people at 538, n=759, MoE=3.6%.