It wasn't hard to foresee that Bernie would do badly one-on-one against a moderate. You just had to remember 2016, when he got about 43% of the vote. He ran the same campaign this time, and we're looking down the barrel of a similar result.
To dispense with the stupid idea that's been consuming the internet, Elizabeth Warren's endorsement wouldn't have changed anything significant. Progressive Warren voters have moved to Sanders already -- there just aren't enough of them for him to win. Polls about counterfactuals aren't always reliable, but it's worth noting that the one poll to ask people how they'd vote if Warren endorsed Sanders had him gaining only 2%. The progressive movement is better served by Warren playing for influence within a future Biden Administration -- the same way she negotiated with Hillary four years before.
In fairness to the Sanders campaign, things could've turned out better. If Democrats had been completely ineffective in resisting Trump, disgusted mainstream partisans might have gone over to him, pushing him over 50%. But things generally went well enough to keep the Democratic faithful satisfied.
Obamacare survived by the skin of John McCain's thumb, Democrats won a House landslide in 2018, the new Congress began with Pelosi defeating Trump in a government shutdown, impeachment was handled skillfully, and it seems to have helped purple-state Democratic Senate challengers as intended. There were defeats too, but that's not a bad list of legislative and electoral successes.
So by October 2019, it should've been obvious that the Sanders campaign would need to do something new to get over 50% one-on-one. They didn't realize this. Some accounts have them being confident that centrists would divide the vote all the way through the primary. They didn't see Jim Clyburn coming, or even expect some shadowy insider force from Bernie Twitter ghost stories to unify the field against them. And that leaves us here.
Barring a miracle, the path to progressive reform in the next administration will involve maneuvering Biden into it. The inside game begins with whatever concessions Warren can squeeze from him. Then we need strong Congressional majorities, and victory in internal White House power struggles. Old Joe is a party man more than an ideologue, and his positions can move if you set things up right around him.
When there are no more moves in the outside game, you don't give up. You switch to the inside game. I'll have more on that in the weeks to come.
To dispense with the stupid idea that's been consuming the internet, Elizabeth Warren's endorsement wouldn't have changed anything significant. Progressive Warren voters have moved to Sanders already -- there just aren't enough of them for him to win. Polls about counterfactuals aren't always reliable, but it's worth noting that the one poll to ask people how they'd vote if Warren endorsed Sanders had him gaining only 2%. The progressive movement is better served by Warren playing for influence within a future Biden Administration -- the same way she negotiated with Hillary four years before.
In fairness to the Sanders campaign, things could've turned out better. If Democrats had been completely ineffective in resisting Trump, disgusted mainstream partisans might have gone over to him, pushing him over 50%. But things generally went well enough to keep the Democratic faithful satisfied.
Obamacare survived by the skin of John McCain's thumb, Democrats won a House landslide in 2018, the new Congress began with Pelosi defeating Trump in a government shutdown, impeachment was handled skillfully, and it seems to have helped purple-state Democratic Senate challengers as intended. There were defeats too, but that's not a bad list of legislative and electoral successes.
So by October 2019, it should've been obvious that the Sanders campaign would need to do something new to get over 50% one-on-one. They didn't realize this. Some accounts have them being confident that centrists would divide the vote all the way through the primary. They didn't see Jim Clyburn coming, or even expect some shadowy insider force from Bernie Twitter ghost stories to unify the field against them. And that leaves us here.
Barring a miracle, the path to progressive reform in the next administration will involve maneuvering Biden into it. The inside game begins with whatever concessions Warren can squeeze from him. Then we need strong Congressional majorities, and victory in internal White House power struggles. Old Joe is a party man more than an ideologue, and his positions can move if you set things up right around him.
When there are no more moves in the outside game, you don't give up. You switch to the inside game. I'll have more on that in the weeks to come.
