Elizabeth Warren is leading in the favorability averages of the historically best Iowa pollsters, compiled by Nate Silver. Biden still leads the national polls. But I think these Iowa numbers are underrated in contemporary internet speculation. If you're worried that Biden might coast to the nomination, let me render Optimism Guy services in my new Elizabeth Warren Fan Club uniform.
First, some history about Iowa and why it's historically such a big deal. It's the first actual election in the primary, so it's a huge focus of media coverage, and plays a major role in winnowing the field. That's the point at which the primaries become more a mass-media story rather than an inside story for activist types. And with the national primary coming on, lots of people are starting to seriously decide how to vote. It's the moment when you want the media to treat you as the popular candidate on an upswing. You do this... by winning Iowa! It's the place where Obama became the front-runner in 2008. There are changes of various sorts that probably dampen this effect a little relative to history, but I think it's still significant.
Now for our polls. Among Iowa Democrats, Warren's favorable-unfavorables lead the pack at 80-11, followed by Harris at 73-10 and Mayor Pete at 72-7. Bernie is at 68-24, and only then do we see Biden at 67-24.
We're in the stage where candidates start to drop out. Because these polls register information about how you might vote if your first choice drops out, they're better for predicting the direction of consolidation than polls that just ask you about your first choice. And that direction of consolidation favors Warren.
Nicely, it also favors Harris, Pete, and Bernie (MoE tho) over Biden. They each have a decent electability case -- Harris with minority turnout, Bernie with good general-election poll numbers, and Pete with skillful navigation of the media environment. I think they'd all make much better presidents than Biden, who really has the full versions of bad traits that people attack the other three for in overheated primary debates.
In summary: Warren is on top in a highly consequential polling average. If she falters, some alternative superior to Biden gets a serious shot. If you're a Warren fan or an anybody-but-Biden type (I'm both), Iowa favors you.
First, some history about Iowa and why it's historically such a big deal. It's the first actual election in the primary, so it's a huge focus of media coverage, and plays a major role in winnowing the field. That's the point at which the primaries become more a mass-media story rather than an inside story for activist types. And with the national primary coming on, lots of people are starting to seriously decide how to vote. It's the moment when you want the media to treat you as the popular candidate on an upswing. You do this... by winning Iowa! It's the place where Obama became the front-runner in 2008. There are changes of various sorts that probably dampen this effect a little relative to history, but I think it's still significant.
Now for our polls. Among Iowa Democrats, Warren's favorable-unfavorables lead the pack at 80-11, followed by Harris at 73-10 and Mayor Pete at 72-7. Bernie is at 68-24, and only then do we see Biden at 67-24.
We're in the stage where candidates start to drop out. Because these polls register information about how you might vote if your first choice drops out, they're better for predicting the direction of consolidation than polls that just ask you about your first choice. And that direction of consolidation favors Warren.
Nicely, it also favors Harris, Pete, and Bernie (MoE tho) over Biden. They each have a decent electability case -- Harris with minority turnout, Bernie with good general-election poll numbers, and Pete with skillful navigation of the media environment. I think they'd all make much better presidents than Biden, who really has the full versions of bad traits that people attack the other three for in overheated primary debates.
In summary: Warren is on top in a highly consequential polling average. If she falters, some alternative superior to Biden gets a serious shot. If you're a Warren fan or an anybody-but-Biden type (I'm both), Iowa favors you.
