Mueller Time has come. Some writers characterize his report as an "impeachment referral", which seems like the correct read of his intentions. The by-the-book move was to refer questions of collusion and obstruction to Congress, and Mueller is a by-the-book guy.
Unfortunately, some things in the Constitution don't actually work. Impeachment is one of them. Here we run into the unfortunate fact that the founders didn't see political parties coming.
In a less partisan time, 67 independent-minded Senators might have been able to agree to convict. It won't happen now, because Republicans have a majority and their Senators aren't independent-minded. Republican primary voters love Trump, and their Senators often worry more about their primaries than about the general election. Moreover, Trump has satisfied Republicans' core commitments on judicial nominations and taxes. So the Senators aren't in any hurry to impeach.
Nancy Pelosi counts votes as well as anyone ever has, and she knows we won't have the numbers. This isn't a lack of boldness -- she's willing to make bold moves when Senate passage is possible but uncertain. I remember when she got major climate change legislation through the House in 2009. That time we needed 60 Senators, and we had that many Democrats until Ted Kennedy died. This time we need 67 Senators, and we have 47 Democrats. With Mitch McConnell's accursed ability to hold his caucus together behind Trump, there's no way impeachment is happening, at least on the current Mueller Report.
So if you're going to support impeaching Trump in the House, you have to face the consequences of his acquittal in the Senate. When Russia issues come up in the 2020 campaign, I don't want Trump to be able to boast that he was acquitted, and say that the issue is behind us. Starting impeachment proceedings is supposed to be a punishment, but here it may just give Trump the gift of acquittal. It's too bad that the founders didn't build us something that actually worked.
The way to get rid of Trump always was the 2020 election. There's stuff in the present report to help with that. Further investigations from other prosecutors who are currently following up on the redacted parts of the report will help even more.
Russia probably shouldn't be the main thing we run on, but it'll be among the things worth bringing up. "Elizabeth Warren cares about you; Donald Trump cares about Vladimir Putin" will be a nice kind of subsidiary message. I look forward to using it in to win a vote where we don't need to get 67%, and which isn't held in Mitch McConnell's lair.
Unfortunately, some things in the Constitution don't actually work. Impeachment is one of them. Here we run into the unfortunate fact that the founders didn't see political parties coming.
In a less partisan time, 67 independent-minded Senators might have been able to agree to convict. It won't happen now, because Republicans have a majority and their Senators aren't independent-minded. Republican primary voters love Trump, and their Senators often worry more about their primaries than about the general election. Moreover, Trump has satisfied Republicans' core commitments on judicial nominations and taxes. So the Senators aren't in any hurry to impeach.
Nancy Pelosi counts votes as well as anyone ever has, and she knows we won't have the numbers. This isn't a lack of boldness -- she's willing to make bold moves when Senate passage is possible but uncertain. I remember when she got major climate change legislation through the House in 2009. That time we needed 60 Senators, and we had that many Democrats until Ted Kennedy died. This time we need 67 Senators, and we have 47 Democrats. With Mitch McConnell's accursed ability to hold his caucus together behind Trump, there's no way impeachment is happening, at least on the current Mueller Report.
So if you're going to support impeaching Trump in the House, you have to face the consequences of his acquittal in the Senate. When Russia issues come up in the 2020 campaign, I don't want Trump to be able to boast that he was acquitted, and say that the issue is behind us. Starting impeachment proceedings is supposed to be a punishment, but here it may just give Trump the gift of acquittal. It's too bad that the founders didn't build us something that actually worked.
The way to get rid of Trump always was the 2020 election. There's stuff in the present report to help with that. Further investigations from other prosecutors who are currently following up on the redacted parts of the report will help even more.
Russia probably shouldn't be the main thing we run on, but it'll be among the things worth bringing up. "Elizabeth Warren cares about you; Donald Trump cares about Vladimir Putin" will be a nice kind of subsidiary message. I look forward to using it in to win a vote where we don't need to get 67%, and which isn't held in Mitch McConnell's lair.
