Thursday, March 28, 2019

Some SDNY speculation after Mueller

Plausible-optimistic speculation is that instead of indicting Trump himself, Mueller simply passed the investigations on to other prosecutors. If one of them is SDNY, the office that got Michael Cohen, this could really have the feel of a movie script.

SDNY is where Preet Bharara used to work (and where he won 85 consecutive insider trading cases). He was prosecuting Prevezon, a Russian mafia-linked corporation, for a $200 million money-laundering fine under the Magnitsky Act. Then the Trump Administration fired him. With the prosecution disrupted, Prevezon settled for a mere $6 million fine, as their attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya was delighted to announce.

It was Veselnitskaya, a former Soviet counterintelligence officer, and a translator who met with Manafort, Kushner, and Donald Jr in Trump Tower during the campaign to talk about the Magnitsky Act and about "dirt on Clinton". Trump Tower is geographically within the Southern District of New York.

So, that's a lot to absorb if you haven't heard it before. But here's the upshot. SDNY is famous for being ferocious. How do you think they feel about having Bharara knocked off a case against the Russian mafia, and having to settle for $6M out of $200M? I can't imagine they're too happy about it.

As it happens, the apparent quid pro quo that got their superstar fired and lost them the case was negotiated within their jurisdiction. So maybe it's for the best that Mueller didn't bring any indictments. Someone less constrained and more furious might have said to him, "This one is ours."