Democrats are on track for a 50-50 Senate, up from the current 53-47, and have a decent chance at doing better. Even under a Democratic President, Mitch McConnell can obstruct executive appointments, the budget, and other ordinary business with a majority. So let's hope we get at least 50-50. Here's a rundown of the seats that are likely to flip.
Colorado is the most likely Democratic pickup, with John Hickenlooper having double-digit leads over Cory Gardner. I'd look into voting for the possibly more progressive Andrew Romanoff in the primary. But former Governor Hickenlooper will probably win the nomination and the general election.
Second is Arizona. Both candidates used to get very high before entering politics: Republican fighter pilot Martha McSally and Democratic astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly got higher, and is higher in all 8 polls this year.
Third is Maine, where the only 2 polls from this year have Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins by slim margins. Trump's impeachment trial was a trap laid for Collins, whose moderate brand took serious damage from voting to acquit him.
Fourth is my old home state of North Carolina, where the last 3 polls have Cal Cunningham slightly leading Thom Tillis. NC is known for Republican dirty tricks, and I consider this at present the tightest race. I've given Cunningham $250 (which makes me eligible for a virtual fundraiser; let me know if you want in).
Doug Jones has been valiant as the Democratic Senator from Alabama. But he won't get to run against Roy Moore again, so he probably loses to either former Senator Jeff Sessions or Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.
There are a few more races that could go Democratic with luck. Republicans think they have chances in Michigan, but the public polling doesn't really bear it out. Here are a few additional seats that could go Democratic:
In Kansas, moderate Democratic lady Governors have a history of beating extreme Republican guys. We'll see if that works at the Senate level, where Barbara Bollier has 2% leads in two recent polls over immigrant-hating vote suppressor Kris Kobach.
In Montana, popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock finally ended his silly run for President (did anyone notice?) and entered the Senate race on the last legal day. Dem-aligned pollsters have him maybe with a tiny lead, but I'd still consider him a slight underdog against incumbent Steve Daines.
Georgia has two Senate races, which still have to have their primaries. If Republican appointee Kelly Loeffler, famous for insider trading on the virus, wins her primary, I expect she loses the general election. Republican Senator David Perdue isn't the strongest either. But I don't know how good our Democratic candidates will be. It might've been better for Stacey Abrams to run in one of those races. Anyway, Georgia has been trending towards Democrats this decade and we'll see what happens.
It remains to be seen whether MJ Hegar can be like Beto or better in Texas against boring Republican John Cornyn. I would've liked Beto or Julian Castro in that race, but maybe MJ can do it. Polls don't show Cornyn to be strong, but MJ is behind with little name recognition at present.
Finally, there are two tough races with Democratic challengers against hated Republicans. Jaime Harrison is challenging Lindsay Graham in South Carolina and Amy McGrath is up against Mitch McConnell himself in Kentucky. Dem-aligned pollsters sometimes find the Democrats close behind in these races. But Trump won SC by 14% and KY by 30% in 2016, and this is a Presidential year, so his voters will come out. On the upside, the Democrats have fundraised well on their opponents' notoriety. They'll need something very unusual to win -- the kind of unusual that happens in like one Senate race in the average cycle.
If you're donating to individual races, my top two picks right now are probably Cal Cunningham in NC and Barbara Bollier in Kansas. It's best to donate to races that are as close to even as possible, because then your money stands a better chance of tipping the balance. Donating to candidates who will win big or lose big anyway is usually a waste. The Wikipedia page for 2020 Senate races is pretty good for keeping track of things, and links to the individual races with polling.
Colorado is the most likely Democratic pickup, with John Hickenlooper having double-digit leads over Cory Gardner. I'd look into voting for the possibly more progressive Andrew Romanoff in the primary. But former Governor Hickenlooper will probably win the nomination and the general election.
Second is Arizona. Both candidates used to get very high before entering politics: Republican fighter pilot Martha McSally and Democratic astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly got higher, and is higher in all 8 polls this year.
Third is Maine, where the only 2 polls from this year have Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins by slim margins. Trump's impeachment trial was a trap laid for Collins, whose moderate brand took serious damage from voting to acquit him.
Fourth is my old home state of North Carolina, where the last 3 polls have Cal Cunningham slightly leading Thom Tillis. NC is known for Republican dirty tricks, and I consider this at present the tightest race. I've given Cunningham $250 (which makes me eligible for a virtual fundraiser; let me know if you want in).
Doug Jones has been valiant as the Democratic Senator from Alabama. But he won't get to run against Roy Moore again, so he probably loses to either former Senator Jeff Sessions or Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.
There are a few more races that could go Democratic with luck. Republicans think they have chances in Michigan, but the public polling doesn't really bear it out. Here are a few additional seats that could go Democratic:
In Kansas, moderate Democratic lady Governors have a history of beating extreme Republican guys. We'll see if that works at the Senate level, where Barbara Bollier has 2% leads in two recent polls over immigrant-hating vote suppressor Kris Kobach.
In Montana, popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock finally ended his silly run for President (did anyone notice?) and entered the Senate race on the last legal day. Dem-aligned pollsters have him maybe with a tiny lead, but I'd still consider him a slight underdog against incumbent Steve Daines.
Georgia has two Senate races, which still have to have their primaries. If Republican appointee Kelly Loeffler, famous for insider trading on the virus, wins her primary, I expect she loses the general election. Republican Senator David Perdue isn't the strongest either. But I don't know how good our Democratic candidates will be. It might've been better for Stacey Abrams to run in one of those races. Anyway, Georgia has been trending towards Democrats this decade and we'll see what happens.
It remains to be seen whether MJ Hegar can be like Beto or better in Texas against boring Republican John Cornyn. I would've liked Beto or Julian Castro in that race, but maybe MJ can do it. Polls don't show Cornyn to be strong, but MJ is behind with little name recognition at present.
Finally, there are two tough races with Democratic challengers against hated Republicans. Jaime Harrison is challenging Lindsay Graham in South Carolina and Amy McGrath is up against Mitch McConnell himself in Kentucky. Dem-aligned pollsters sometimes find the Democrats close behind in these races. But Trump won SC by 14% and KY by 30% in 2016, and this is a Presidential year, so his voters will come out. On the upside, the Democrats have fundraised well on their opponents' notoriety. They'll need something very unusual to win -- the kind of unusual that happens in like one Senate race in the average cycle.
If you're donating to individual races, my top two picks right now are probably Cal Cunningham in NC and Barbara Bollier in Kansas. It's best to donate to races that are as close to even as possible, because then your money stands a better chance of tipping the balance. Donating to candidates who will win big or lose big anyway is usually a waste. The Wikipedia page for 2020 Senate races is pretty good for keeping track of things, and links to the individual races with polling.
