The Ukraine quid pro quo may not be Trump's worst misdeed, but it's wonderfully suited for an impeachment case.
Trump's guilt is clear. He and several others have more or less confessed, even if he now pretends the confessions didn't happen. And unlike the Russia scandal where the dealings were between Trump cronies and Russians, none of whom would testify, this scandal involved many State Department employees who respect Congressional subpoenas.
The chances of Trump being removed from office were always vanishingly low. They still are. Republicans are afraid to impeach their primary voters' hero. I'm not confident that we'll get a single Republican vote to impeach Trump in the House or convict him in the Senate.
But two worthwhile goals are being achieved. The first is persuading a very small fraction of Trump voters to turn against him. It's hard to measure these things even with poll averages, but impeachment seems to be dropping his approval ratings around 1%. As the cloud hangs over Trump, Democrats have beaten Republicans in tough Southern states. We won the Kentucky Governor's race by 0.4% against a Republican who tried to bring Trump into the race as much as possible.
Second, impeachment seems to be disruptive within the Republican Party. McConnell seems not to have the votes to simply twist the proceedings in arbitrarily silly ways (like going straight to a party-line vote with no real trial). Republican Senators have learned how to accept arbitrary cruelties against brown people, but many of them haven't gotten into the headspace where they're fine with Trump using defense appropriations to allies as extortion bait.
I hope Pelosi delays the House impeachment vote as long as possible. After the vote, control of the situation passes to McConnell, and he's dangerous, whatever tensions there may be in his caucus. The new revelations that Rep. Devin Nunes himself is implicated in the scandal might lead to some unusually good C-SPAN.
Pelosi annoys my friends when she dismisses good left-wing ideas, often to manage pressure from red-district members. But legislative leaders from safe districts are unusually free to shift their official views in unprincipled ways. Notably: Mitch McConnell on proper procedures for handling judicial nominations.
Giving her moderates cover until it's time to move is a solid way for Pelosi to make sure the votes are there. And when it's time to change positions and commit to the winning moves, her affect shifts. Her language becomes elevated and she smiles like checkmate. It was sort of unnerving the week before she got Obamacare through the House. I'm more used to it now.
Trump's guilt is clear. He and several others have more or less confessed, even if he now pretends the confessions didn't happen. And unlike the Russia scandal where the dealings were between Trump cronies and Russians, none of whom would testify, this scandal involved many State Department employees who respect Congressional subpoenas.
The chances of Trump being removed from office were always vanishingly low. They still are. Republicans are afraid to impeach their primary voters' hero. I'm not confident that we'll get a single Republican vote to impeach Trump in the House or convict him in the Senate.
But two worthwhile goals are being achieved. The first is persuading a very small fraction of Trump voters to turn against him. It's hard to measure these things even with poll averages, but impeachment seems to be dropping his approval ratings around 1%. As the cloud hangs over Trump, Democrats have beaten Republicans in tough Southern states. We won the Kentucky Governor's race by 0.4% against a Republican who tried to bring Trump into the race as much as possible.
Second, impeachment seems to be disruptive within the Republican Party. McConnell seems not to have the votes to simply twist the proceedings in arbitrarily silly ways (like going straight to a party-line vote with no real trial). Republican Senators have learned how to accept arbitrary cruelties against brown people, but many of them haven't gotten into the headspace where they're fine with Trump using defense appropriations to allies as extortion bait.
I hope Pelosi delays the House impeachment vote as long as possible. After the vote, control of the situation passes to McConnell, and he's dangerous, whatever tensions there may be in his caucus. The new revelations that Rep. Devin Nunes himself is implicated in the scandal might lead to some unusually good C-SPAN.
Pelosi annoys my friends when she dismisses good left-wing ideas, often to manage pressure from red-district members. But legislative leaders from safe districts are unusually free to shift their official views in unprincipled ways. Notably: Mitch McConnell on proper procedures for handling judicial nominations.
Giving her moderates cover until it's time to move is a solid way for Pelosi to make sure the votes are there. And when it's time to change positions and commit to the winning moves, her affect shifts. Her language becomes elevated and she smiles like checkmate. It was sort of unnerving the week before she got Obamacare through the House. I'm more used to it now.
