Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Warren and Sanders win the debate

In last night's debate, the moderators set John Delaney to attack Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. He did so by calling Sanders and Warren's plans "fairy tale economics." (Plans like theirs have been successful in Europe, which is a real place and not just a location from fairy tales. I actually went there recently and it was very nice.)

Warren's counterattack won the night: "I don't understand why anybody goes to the trouble of running for President of the United States, just to talk about what we can't do and shouldn't fight for." I don't understand why Delaney ran either, but I'm glad he did, as footage of Warren annihilating dim-bulb centrists was something the world needed.

There was also a nice moment when Tim Ryan interrupted Sanders to question whether Medicare for All would cover the things he claimed. Sanders' reply that it would -- "I wrote the damn bill!" -- had the audience applauding and Ryan silently seething on the split screen.

(In 2009, Tim Ryan initially voted to prevent Obamacare from covering abortion. Nancy Pelosi did something -- I don't know what -- to make him back down and support abortion coverage on final passage through the House. Then in 2015, he tried and failed to organize a centrist campaign against Pelosi as Democratic leader. As I'm probably the internet's biggest Pelosi fan, seeing Bernie give Ryan a good whacking was deeply gratifying for me.)

Both Sanders and Warren need to solidify their positions as second choices for each others' voters. Attacking boring moderates who are polling near zero is a good way to do it, as they have few fans for you to alienate. From what I can tell, Sanders and Warren genuinely like each other, as makes sense for ideological people who share an ideology. And it totally works as strategy.

After the debate lineups were announced, I remember Kathleen Geier wishing that Sanders and Warren would join forces against various annoying centrists. It sounded too good to hope for, so I tried not to hope for it. But it really does make sense, and it actually happened! What a wonderful night.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Brexit in Poundland

With Boris Johnson as Britain's new Prime Minister and no-deal Brexit a serious possibility, the British pound is collapsing. A dozen years ago, I visited Britain when the pound was worth $2. The Brexit vote knocked it to $1.35. It rose when people thought they saw ways out of the problem, but right now it's down to $1.22.

This could add to the ugliness of Brexit. Just at the moment when trade disruptions make imported goods hard to get, they become even harder to get because the currency you use to buy them has lost value.

There's a chain called "Poundland" that runs a British equivalent of American dollar stores. The name also seems to me like good slang for post-Brexit Britain. And if bad things happen to the pound, things could get bad in Poundland.


Wednesday, July 17, 2019

The House rebukes Trump


House Democrats unanimously voted to condemn Trump's racist attacks on four minority Congresswomen. The resolution passed, with four Republicans and newly independent Rep. Amash also voting yes. I'm glad to see this, for many different reasons that I'll tell you about.

 -The moderates did their part. There are 36 Democratic representatives from Republican-leaning districts. (Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need to hold at least 17 Republican districts to keep a House majority.) I wouldn't have been confident that freshman Democrats from South Carolina and Oklahoma districts 10 points more Republican than the national average would vote to rebuke Trump's racism. But they did. It speaks well of them and bodes well for future votes, including House passage of major legislation in 2021.

 -The House works. Democrats have been frustrated with the lack of action against Trump from the House. But in general, the problems aren't coming from inside the House. Impeachment accomplishes nothing while McConnell runs the Senate. Trump's new lawyers (Bill Barr, Emmet Flood) have deflected House subpoena attempts into court battles. Senate Democrats have let the House down when they need to work together, as on the border funding bill. But this is something House Democrats could do themselves, and they did it unanimously.

 -The Pelosi-AOC relationship is weird, but it's working. To pass anything in 2021, Pelosi has to cultivate relationships with Dems from Republican districts. These relationships are fraught, because the moderates are all afraid of attack ads tying them to Pelosi. Pelosi can reduce the burden on them by looking more moderate, which she now can do by making grouchy noises at AOC occasionally. But later when the focus is on Trump's racism and Pelosi won't mess up her position, she'll defend AOC against Trump. If all goes well, Pelosi uses AOC to keep the moderates happy and in office, and then squeezes votes out of them in 2021 like she did in 2009-2010 and 2005, this time to pass AOC's priorities. It's a good way for a parliamentary leader and a forward-thinking policy intellectual to play off each other.

 -This was important for America. In telling four minority Congresspeople, three of whom were born in the US, to go back to where they came from, Trump was trying to elevate racial divisions over our common bonds as fellow citizens. Any good future for America depends on us not doing this. Our worst crimes -- slavery and the genocide of Native Americans -- resulted from the dominance of the forces that Trump is trying to normalize again. Having the House formally push back against Trump's racism was an important defense of the only values under which America can flourish.